Back in 1972, the Soviet Union sent two space probes to explore Venus. While Venera 8 successfully reached its destination, the malfunction of a Soyuz rocket prevented its companion, Kosmos 482, from leaving Earth’s orbit. Since then, the defunct probe has been orbiting the planet for over 53 years. However, a Dutch satellite tracker predicts that its uncontrolled reentry is imminent.
On April 24, Marco Langbroek shared his findings on the upcoming reentry of Kosmos 482 on his blog, SatTrackCam Leiden. Collaborating with space engineer Dominic Dirkx, Langbroek estimates that the descent is expected to begin around May 10. Due to the sun’s current active phase affecting atmospheric conditions, the exact location of reentry remains uncertain.
With an orbital inclination of 51.7 degrees, Langbroek suggests that Kosmos 482 could reenter the Earth’s atmosphere between the latitudes of 52N and 52S, potentially spanning from the United Kingdom to New Zealand. The probe is anticipated to reach a velocity of approximately 150 miles per hour prior to impact.
Langbroek noted, “With a mass of just under 500 kg [1,102 pounds] and [its] 1-meter size, risks are similar to that of a meteorite impact.” However, he reassured that the chances of any significant impact are relatively low.
He further explained, “The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero.” Langbroek also mentioned the possibility of the probe’s survival during reentry due to its original design to withstand the harsh conditions of Venus’ atmosphere.
Although there is a slim chance that Kosmos 482’s landing parachute could deploy, Langbroek remains skeptical about its functionality. He stated, “I wouldn’t bet on that working now; [I] would assume that, if it survives reentry, it would come down hard.”
Langbroek and his team intend to gather more data and observations in the coming days to accurately predict the date, time, and location of Kosmos 482’s reentry.
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